Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5430 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5430 · ECP → DFW

departs 7:17 PM CT · arrives 9:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP

↓ ECP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5430 · ECP → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?