Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5434 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5434 · DFW → MAF

departs 10:31 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MAF?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MAF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

MAF (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5434 · DFW → MAF

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAF?