Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3489
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3489 · AUS → SAN
departs 1:54 PM CT · arrives 3:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.03 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.