Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3923 · SDF → MSP
departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 7:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 11%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.