Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3945 · AUS → BNA
departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 5:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.