Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 3954 · SEA → MFR
departs 9:35 PM PT · arrives 11:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
MFR (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.