Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 3954 · SEA → MFR
departs 9:35 PM PT · arrives 11:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0 mi forecast at MFR that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Arrivals into MFR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.