Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4033
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4033 · SBN → ATL
departs 5:02 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.