Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4035 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OO 4035 · MSP → MEM

departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,567 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4035 · MSP → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?