Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4039
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4039 · SEA → BZN
departs 7:59 PM PT · arrives 10:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 17%
Wed 11/4 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
BZN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.