Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4039
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4039 · SEA → BZN
departs 7:59 PM PT · arrives 10:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 17%
Wed 11/4 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BZN (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.