Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4053 · MFE → AUS
departs 3:57 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MFE (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.