Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4143
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4143 · MSP → MOT
departs 5:58 PM CT · arrives 7:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MOT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MOT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MOT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.