Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4154 · MSP → MOT
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MOT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MOT?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MOT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.