Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4278 · DTW → CIU
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 29%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CIU more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CIU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CIU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CIU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.