Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4912 · ORD → GRR
departs 1:08 PM CT · arrives 3:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GRR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.