Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 4956 · DFW → SJT
departs 10:35 PM CT · arrives 11:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SJT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at SJT that day
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
SJT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,533 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
SJT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.