Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 4956 · DFW → SJT
departs 10:36 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 16%
Wed 11/4 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJT more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SJT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SJT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.566667 mi forecast at SJT that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day
↓
SJT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.08 in
SJT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.566667 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.