Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5516 · GRR → ORD
departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 43%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±9 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.