Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
OO 5516 · GRR → ORD
departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29 39%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.