OO 5720 · ORD → DCA

took off 10:28 AM CT · expected to land 12:56 PM ET (scheduled 10:00 AM CT → 1:06 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5720 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?