Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 721 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

QK 721 · YYZ → MSP

departs 6:44 PM EDT · arrives 8:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from YYZ are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 721 · YYZ → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?