Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 3034 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

SY 3034 · MCI → CVG

departs 5:29 PM CT · arrives 8:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MCI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.06 in

CVG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 3034 · MCI → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?