SY 396 · SFO → MSP

departs 6:11 PM PT · arrives 11:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 396 · SFO → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?