UA 1761 · ORD → MSY

departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1761 · ORD → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?