UA 2278 · SAN → SFO

departs 7:41 PM PT · arrives 9:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2278 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?