Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2278 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 2278 · SAN → SFO

departs 7:49 PM PT · arrives 9:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±7 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 55% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.09 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2278 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?