Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2349 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 2349 · ORD → MSN

departs 12:54 PM CT · arrives 1:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into MSN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2349 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?