Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 250 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 250 · DEN → MSY

departs 1:29 PM MT · arrives 5:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling11,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 250 · DEN → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?