Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 671 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 671 · DEN → SBA

departs 11:26 AM MT · arrives 1:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

↑ SBA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 671 · DEN → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?