Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 671 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

UA 671 · DEN → SBA

departs 11:26 AM MT · arrives 1:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ SBA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 671 · DEN → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?