WN 1470 · DAL → STL

took off 5:52 PM CT · expected to land 7:06 PM CT (scheduled 5:22 PM CT → 7:17 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from DAL are often late

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1470 · DAL → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?