Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 1604 · AUS → JAX
departs 12:43 PM CT · arrives 4:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at JAX that day
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.11 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.