Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 1604 · AUS → JAX
departs 1:40 PM CT · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.03 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.