WN 1809 · DEN → TPA

departs 3:53 PM MT · arrives 9:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1809 · DEN → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?