Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 1809 · DEN → TPA
departs 5:21 PM MT · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 34%
Thu 11/5 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at DEN that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.