Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 219 · CUN → MDW
departs 1:04 PM EST · arrives 5:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CUN
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
↓
CUN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.