Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 219 · CUN → MDW
departs 11:41 AM EST · arrives 3:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CUN
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.