WN 2411 · LAS → SFO

departs 4:01 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8908Q (B38M), coming in as WN 3719 from SAT: landed 3:29 PM PT.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

95% chance · ±0 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
5%
15–30 min late
39%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
43%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2411 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?