Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 2411 · LAS → SFO
departs 4:28 PM PT · arrives 6:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 96%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 53%
Tue 11/3 38%
Wed 11/4 50%
Thu 11/5 72%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.13 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.