Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2470 · LAX → DEN
departs 2:37 PM PT · arrives 5:58 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2 42%
Tue 11/3 47%
Wed 11/4 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.