Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 2470 · LAX → DEN
departs 1:04 PM PT · arrives 4:21 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 10/30 41%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2 42%
Tue 11/3 47%
Wed 11/4 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.10 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.