WN 2472 · SMF → LAX

took off 7:02 PM PT · landed 8:03 PM PT (scheduled 5:56 PM PT → 7:31 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2472 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAX?