Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 2472 · SMF → LAX
departs 7:25 PM PT · arrives 8:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 39%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±7 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.