Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 2915 · MDW → MCI
departs 2:19 PM CT · arrives 3:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.