WN 2959 · PHX → OAK

departs 8:44 PM MT · arrives 10:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

81% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
47%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.76 in

OAK (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2959 · PHX → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?