WN 3620 · RSW → STL

took off 7:35 PM ET · expected to land 8:46 PM CT (scheduled 7:25 PM ET → 9:12 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at RSW that day

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3620 · RSW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?