Schedule: FAA flight plans.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3915
SCHEDULED
Friday, October 30 Today
WN 3915 · SMF → GEG
departs 9:28 PM PT · arrives 11:24 PM PT
Your aircraft is N8626B (B738), coming in as WN 4299 from SBA: in the air, landing about 9:29 PM PT, 6 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 27%
Thu 11/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
100%
chance · ±0 pts
+77 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
100%
Leave 15+ late
100%
Arrive 1h+ late
67%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 81 min after the scheduled departure, about 69 min late from the gate after a typical 12-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 99%.
+77 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No <1%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 81 min after the scheduled departure, about 69 min late from the gate after a typical 12-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 99%.
+69 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No 0%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 81 min after the scheduled departure, about 69 min late from the gate after a typical 12-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 24%.
+19 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
1%
15–30 min late
82%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8.28571 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.