Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 3915 · SMF → GEG
departs 6:29 PM PT · arrives 8:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 27%
Thu 11/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.