Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3987
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3987 · DEN → LAX
departs 8:58 PM MT · arrives 10:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 43%
Mon 11/2 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±12 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.